Opening day for most of the NBA led to a lot of shakedowns for fantasy basketball. One of the biggest problems of newbie fantasy managers (and some seasoned vets as well) is making season-long decisions based on the first day of the season. There's months of fantasy basketball left, folks. Nevertheless, let's look at some of the key things to consider from last night's game:
TOs - Stern and Spaulding have changed the game with that new micro-fiber ball - and not necessarily for the better. Turnovers abound as even players who are pretty good at holding onto the ball are turning over the ball 3 or 4 times a game. One of the most overlooked cats in the fantasy system is TOs, but for those of you with efficiency squads, consider that this is apparently a league-wide problem. I know many players complained about the new ball, so we might see a switch back to the cowhide. Nevertheless, this could make players known for low TOs (like Shane Battier, who had none in 30 minutes of play) more equitable.
Minutes played - This is one of the stats you can look at for insight into the season - especially for your players who come into the season with question marks about health. One of the most notable marks is T-Mac, who played 42 minutes and had an excellent game, turning out 25 pts and 9 assists. Take this with a grain of salt, however - the best indication of how he will pan out as the season progresses is to see how many minutes he gets on the second game of a back-to-back series. On the other hand, Andrei Kirilenko only played 23 minutes and did not turn out a great game, and Sloan had questioned AK47's conditioning when he reported. Sloan is reportedly running a faster offense, which is problematic for someone so injury-prone as AK.
Minutes also show how position battles play - for instance, the 4 and 5 problems in Seattle. Collison, Wilcox and Petro all are fighting for minutes at these crowded positions, and it shook out to less than 24 minutes for any of them. Hard to consider anyone who only gets these sparing numbers.
PLAYERS OF THE GAME: I want to focus on three players here instead of just one:
MONTA ELLIS - First, Golden State is still trying to learn Don Nelson's offensive style and things may shake out big here for Monta Ellis. He is a quick, slick guard who can get to the basket and make big plays. One of the most impressive displays of scoring I had ever seen. With Nellie trashing Davis saying "he is slamming the ball too much" and calling Dunleavy a "disaster," we could definitely see a changing of the guard - definitely until Jason Richardson gets back to 100%
QUENTIN RICHARDSON - The Q in Q-Rich definitely stands for question mark, as many fantasy owners were burned by him when they drafted the 3 pt leader 2 years ago and were gravely disappointed as Isiah Thomas and Larry Brown made a mess of the Knicks. Most are quick to write this game off as a fluke, but let's look more carefully at the situation. Jalen Rose is gone, Jared Jeffries is hurt, and Balkman isn't ready for those kind of minutes. Q-rich won't deliver 10/13 FG every night, but he will be a good source of 3s and is the best current option at the 3.
ANTHONY PARKER - You mean Tony Parker? No, the shooting guard recently acquired from Maccabi Tel Aviv in Europe. He is an experienced player who has been playing in Europe for years and won 5 Israeli National Championships. Is that good? I don't know. What I do know is that Morris Peterson works better at SF than any of their other SFs (and by others, I mean Joey Graham), and Anthony Parker is apparently the next in line at SG, beating out my sleeper Fred Jones. I would actually look to see if Fred Jones gets more minutes before I hand Parker the position. Good scoring (9/17 FG, 2 3s), but not much else.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Happy Halloween!!! Now that that's been said...
Let's get to the point. Fantasy basketball season officially kicks off today. We have two games today, Suns vs. Lakers and Bulls vs. Heat.
Things to consider for these first two games:
1) CHI vs. MIA - Watch Dwyane Wade to see how he performs. There has been a definite worry by several commentators that Wade will view the regular season as practice for the postseason, and this could mean big problems for those who drafted high on the former Marquette guard.
Ben Gordon is another player to watch. Everyone is going to be talking about how he put up 38 points on stellar FG%, but further analysis of his preseason numbers you see a pattern of much worse shooting, and I'm worried we won't see anything new this season.
2) PHO vs. LAL - Watch Amare and see what I spoke to in the prior post. Amare's knees have cost him his explosive power, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the way the whole team plays. Also keep an eye on Nash and watch for the lack of crispness in his passes we saw in the preseason. Boris Diaw's minutes and production will also be on fantasy owner's minds as he could be called upon to play a bigger role this year with the aforementioned declines.
PLAYER OF THE DAY: ANDREW BYNUM - Let's do some math. Kobe is questionable for this season opener. Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm are out with injuries. Now let's look at the Andrew Bynum's statline from their last preseason game against the Suns - 16 points on 8 of 9 shooting, 9 boards, one block on 26 minutes of PT. As long as the Lakers struggle with injury, look to Bynum to put up good numbers and appear to be a sleeper. I say "appear" because I don't suspect the youngster will retain his spot in the post regardless of his talent or how he performs in his role. The Lakers will always be Kobe's team, and once he comes back expect Bynum to dwindle into fourth scoring option again. In addition, as is typical with rookies, Bynum turns over the ball A LOT - 2.5 TOPG in the preseason. Nevertheless, you can make big gains in the short run by taking advantage of tonight's big game and the next couple of weeks while Bynum gets starter minutes, then perhaps turning those gains into a quick trade.
Rob's Forecast: 24 pts on 11 of 14 FG and 2 of 3 FT, 9 boards, 2 assists, 1 block, 3 TOs
Things to consider for these first two games:
1) CHI vs. MIA - Watch Dwyane Wade to see how he performs. There has been a definite worry by several commentators that Wade will view the regular season as practice for the postseason, and this could mean big problems for those who drafted high on the former Marquette guard.
Ben Gordon is another player to watch. Everyone is going to be talking about how he put up 38 points on stellar FG%, but further analysis of his preseason numbers you see a pattern of much worse shooting, and I'm worried we won't see anything new this season.
2) PHO vs. LAL - Watch Amare and see what I spoke to in the prior post. Amare's knees have cost him his explosive power, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the way the whole team plays. Also keep an eye on Nash and watch for the lack of crispness in his passes we saw in the preseason. Boris Diaw's minutes and production will also be on fantasy owner's minds as he could be called upon to play a bigger role this year with the aforementioned declines.
PLAYER OF THE DAY: ANDREW BYNUM - Let's do some math. Kobe is questionable for this season opener. Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm are out with injuries. Now let's look at the Andrew Bynum's statline from their last preseason game against the Suns - 16 points on 8 of 9 shooting, 9 boards, one block on 26 minutes of PT. As long as the Lakers struggle with injury, look to Bynum to put up good numbers and appear to be a sleeper. I say "appear" because I don't suspect the youngster will retain his spot in the post regardless of his talent or how he performs in his role. The Lakers will always be Kobe's team, and once he comes back expect Bynum to dwindle into fourth scoring option again. In addition, as is typical with rookies, Bynum turns over the ball A LOT - 2.5 TOPG in the preseason. Nevertheless, you can make big gains in the short run by taking advantage of tonight's big game and the next couple of weeks while Bynum gets starter minutes, then perhaps turning those gains into a quick trade.
Rob's Forecast: 24 pts on 11 of 14 FG and 2 of 3 FT, 9 boards, 2 assists, 1 block, 3 TOs
Monday, October 30, 2006
Welcome and First Round Rankings
Welcome to the first post of Rob's Fantasy Basketball Column. I'll come up with a better name when I get around to it. First, let's get you locked in to the most current fantasy basketball advice.
One of the biggest problems I have with fantasy columns is that they don't speak to their context. In my articles, I will be looking at the standard 9 category fantasy basketball league (Field Goal Percentage (FG%), Free Throw Percentage (FT%), Three Points Made (3PT), Points (PTS), Rebounds (RB), Steals (ST), Blocks (BL), and Turnovers (TO). I will also be specifying how players abilities will be an advantage or disadvantage to each the rotisserie (roto) and head to head (h2h) leagues.
Your first round pick sets up the foundation by which you can build a team. Unlike fantasy football, you aren't screwed if you don't get the first 3 picks, as you can build a solid core to build on even with the last round pick. This opening column is written to give you a feel for how you can set your team up. In later posts, I will tell you what kind of strategies and common pitfalls people make when drafting teams.
With that said - let's begin with my rankings for the first round picks:
1) Marion, Shawn - I suppose I will draw a lot of flack for not taking Lebron #1 overall. Here's why I take Marion here - he is the most consistent fantasy player year in, year out, and he contributes to EVERY category and doesn't hurt you in any. Every single one, even in hard to get cats like blocks and steals. Don't count on Amare's return having any relevance to his stats declining. Amare's gimpy knees are back for a second season, and even if he does play, his explosiveness is gone.
2) Garnett, Kevin - Garnett has held the top spots in fantasy basketball for years now. He is extremely consistent and also doesn't hurt you in any category. His major two differences from Marion are he has more assists but virtually no 3s. I heard a rumor KG is working on adding a three point shot, but I'm not sure how that will play into the Minnesota offensive strategy. He also has more TOs than Marion, though not significantly more. Some comments are saying now that he's surrounded by a stronger cast in Minnesota, he'll be more motivated but Mike James who just got his with a fat contract, and Randy Foye who may not be NBA ready doesn't impress me much. Plus, Ricky Davis the cancer still plays for them.
3) James, Lebron - Okay, now here's where Lebron comes in. Not much has to be said about the King, except he will be huge in many categories as well - great boards, assists, points and steals. However, what drops him to #3 is he hurts you in TOs really badly, and his FT% (.738) is not elite for someone in his position. I think he could be much better if he had a better crew to work with, but I think that factor is fantasy-irrelevant.
4) Nowitzki, Dirk - I love Dirk. I loved Dirk more when he was C-elligible, but he's still a player who you can build a team around. Although his 3s have been better in the past, he's still a decent 3-pt shooter, great points, great boards, and low TOs. I struggle with .480 from a PF, but I'm willling to overlook it when you consider he will help win you the FT% cat with the third best in the league. Also, for a 7'0 guy, he's not going to give you a lot of blocks, but he'll contribute some. He's proved himself with the Mavs and familiar with the offense so look for another solid year.
5) Wade, Dwyane - Wade is a beast - pure and simple. The 58 blocks he gives you at a guard position is phenomenal. His biggest faults are 3s - which this year he is reportedly working a 3pt shot into his arsenal - and TOs - which won't get better. Also, that near .500 FG% will fall drastically with a 3pt shot. You can't complain with the boards and assists you get from him here though. Also, although the NBA will make sure Wade wins another most FTA award this season, his .783 isn't enough to win it for you - not excellent for a guard position. Same team as last year says you can probably expect the same general performance.
6) Bryant, Kobe - I don't like Kobe as a person, but that's not why he falls to #6. Let's be honest - Kobe wins you points almost by yourself, and helps you with FT% significantly, but he doesn't do much else for who else can be had at this point. Low FG% and high TOs are my biggest concerns here. The knee issue worries me a little, but it's Kobe's show to run so once he gets healthy I don't suspect a big change from last year.
7) Brand, Elton - I almost feel bad putting Brand this low, because here is another player who won't hurt you anywhere. Brand is one of the key pieces you need to win blocks. Tack onto that great points, strong boards, great percentages (the luxury of this good a FT% from a big man is priceless) and you have a pretty good option at the end of the round. Clip Show is still the same essential crew, even with question marks surrounding the PG situation, but I doubt it will dramatically affect Brand's performance.
8) Arenas, Gilbert - I like Arenas, because he's another fast-paced guard who will pay off huge in 3s, points, FT%, assists and steals. But I also hate Arenas because he KILLS you with almost 4 TOs per game and the relatively low FG%. You've already lost TOs if you draft Arenas. Again, same general crew in Washington, and Arenas is their #1 scoring option, so no big changes expected here.
9) Ming, Yao - Since Amare's blowup, Yao is considered THE elite center of the game. Great percentages, good points and blocks make him the prototype. Nevertheless, the toe issues he experienced last year are apparently STILL an issue, so I worry about his health a little bit. It's still the Yao and T-Mac show, and health issues surrounding T-Mac are much more significant than Yao's, so he could see an uptick in points this season.
10) Nash, Steve - I bump the two-time MVP up a little bit because he's still the king of assists. However, I expect a decline this year in assists and increase in TOs from some of the preseason games I have seen. The passes are not as crisp as they once were, and I'm wondering if some kind of Samson effect is taking place. Still great 3s, decent pts and excellent percentages go along w/ assists to keeps him top 10, despite really high TOs. I've already aired my Amare woes, so I don't think him coming back will have as drastic effect on performance as everyone else seems to expect.
11) Iverson, Allen - If the question is points, assists, steals and FT%, then yes, AI is the Answer. Not a bad acquisition for the end of the round. If the question is FG%, and TOs, however...Same crew in Philly, and still AI's show to run. No big changes here.
12) Allen, Ray - I love Ray-Ray. Although his FG% isn't perfect, you could do worse at the guard position, and he wins you threes. Pair him with another decent 3pt shooter and you've won the cat outright. Great points from his 3s, great FT%, decent steals, but pretty nominal among other cats. TOs aren't too bad. Depending how the PG situation shakes out between Ridnour and Watson could decrease Ray-Ray's output a little, but I don't see it being that significant.
One of the biggest problems I have with fantasy columns is that they don't speak to their context. In my articles, I will be looking at the standard 9 category fantasy basketball league (Field Goal Percentage (FG%), Free Throw Percentage (FT%), Three Points Made (3PT), Points (PTS), Rebounds (RB), Steals (ST), Blocks (BL), and Turnovers (TO). I will also be specifying how players abilities will be an advantage or disadvantage to each the rotisserie (roto) and head to head (h2h) leagues.
Your first round pick sets up the foundation by which you can build a team. Unlike fantasy football, you aren't screwed if you don't get the first 3 picks, as you can build a solid core to build on even with the last round pick. This opening column is written to give you a feel for how you can set your team up. In later posts, I will tell you what kind of strategies and common pitfalls people make when drafting teams.
With that said - let's begin with my rankings for the first round picks:
1) Marion, Shawn - I suppose I will draw a lot of flack for not taking Lebron #1 overall. Here's why I take Marion here - he is the most consistent fantasy player year in, year out, and he contributes to EVERY category and doesn't hurt you in any. Every single one, even in hard to get cats like blocks and steals. Don't count on Amare's return having any relevance to his stats declining. Amare's gimpy knees are back for a second season, and even if he does play, his explosiveness is gone.
2) Garnett, Kevin - Garnett has held the top spots in fantasy basketball for years now. He is extremely consistent and also doesn't hurt you in any category. His major two differences from Marion are he has more assists but virtually no 3s. I heard a rumor KG is working on adding a three point shot, but I'm not sure how that will play into the Minnesota offensive strategy. He also has more TOs than Marion, though not significantly more. Some comments are saying now that he's surrounded by a stronger cast in Minnesota, he'll be more motivated but Mike James who just got his with a fat contract, and Randy Foye who may not be NBA ready doesn't impress me much. Plus, Ricky Davis the cancer still plays for them.
3) James, Lebron - Okay, now here's where Lebron comes in. Not much has to be said about the King, except he will be huge in many categories as well - great boards, assists, points and steals. However, what drops him to #3 is he hurts you in TOs really badly, and his FT% (.738) is not elite for someone in his position. I think he could be much better if he had a better crew to work with, but I think that factor is fantasy-irrelevant.
4) Nowitzki, Dirk - I love Dirk. I loved Dirk more when he was C-elligible, but he's still a player who you can build a team around. Although his 3s have been better in the past, he's still a decent 3-pt shooter, great points, great boards, and low TOs. I struggle with .480 from a PF, but I'm willling to overlook it when you consider he will help win you the FT% cat with the third best in the league. Also, for a 7'0 guy, he's not going to give you a lot of blocks, but he'll contribute some. He's proved himself with the Mavs and familiar with the offense so look for another solid year.
5) Wade, Dwyane - Wade is a beast - pure and simple. The 58 blocks he gives you at a guard position is phenomenal. His biggest faults are 3s - which this year he is reportedly working a 3pt shot into his arsenal - and TOs - which won't get better. Also, that near .500 FG% will fall drastically with a 3pt shot. You can't complain with the boards and assists you get from him here though. Also, although the NBA will make sure Wade wins another most FTA award this season, his .783 isn't enough to win it for you - not excellent for a guard position. Same team as last year says you can probably expect the same general performance.
6) Bryant, Kobe - I don't like Kobe as a person, but that's not why he falls to #6. Let's be honest - Kobe wins you points almost by yourself, and helps you with FT% significantly, but he doesn't do much else for who else can be had at this point. Low FG% and high TOs are my biggest concerns here. The knee issue worries me a little, but it's Kobe's show to run so once he gets healthy I don't suspect a big change from last year.
7) Brand, Elton - I almost feel bad putting Brand this low, because here is another player who won't hurt you anywhere. Brand is one of the key pieces you need to win blocks. Tack onto that great points, strong boards, great percentages (the luxury of this good a FT% from a big man is priceless) and you have a pretty good option at the end of the round. Clip Show is still the same essential crew, even with question marks surrounding the PG situation, but I doubt it will dramatically affect Brand's performance.
8) Arenas, Gilbert - I like Arenas, because he's another fast-paced guard who will pay off huge in 3s, points, FT%, assists and steals. But I also hate Arenas because he KILLS you with almost 4 TOs per game and the relatively low FG%. You've already lost TOs if you draft Arenas. Again, same general crew in Washington, and Arenas is their #1 scoring option, so no big changes expected here.
9) Ming, Yao - Since Amare's blowup, Yao is considered THE elite center of the game. Great percentages, good points and blocks make him the prototype. Nevertheless, the toe issues he experienced last year are apparently STILL an issue, so I worry about his health a little bit. It's still the Yao and T-Mac show, and health issues surrounding T-Mac are much more significant than Yao's, so he could see an uptick in points this season.
10) Nash, Steve - I bump the two-time MVP up a little bit because he's still the king of assists. However, I expect a decline this year in assists and increase in TOs from some of the preseason games I have seen. The passes are not as crisp as they once were, and I'm wondering if some kind of Samson effect is taking place. Still great 3s, decent pts and excellent percentages go along w/ assists to keeps him top 10, despite really high TOs. I've already aired my Amare woes, so I don't think him coming back will have as drastic effect on performance as everyone else seems to expect.
11) Iverson, Allen - If the question is points, assists, steals and FT%, then yes, AI is the Answer. Not a bad acquisition for the end of the round. If the question is FG%, and TOs, however...Same crew in Philly, and still AI's show to run. No big changes here.
12) Allen, Ray - I love Ray-Ray. Although his FG% isn't perfect, you could do worse at the guard position, and he wins you threes. Pair him with another decent 3pt shooter and you've won the cat outright. Great points from his 3s, great FT%, decent steals, but pretty nominal among other cats. TOs aren't too bad. Depending how the PG situation shakes out between Ridnour and Watson could decrease Ray-Ray's output a little, but I don't see it being that significant.
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